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SPEECH
DIRECTORY:
Background on RDC
Investment Parameters
Case Study: Financing the Nacala Corridor
Structural Trends in African Privatizations
Case Study: Financing Ferrovias Guatemala
Structural Trends in Central America
Conclusions
Nacala Corridor Inspection Trip
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Structural
Trends in African Privatizations
On
a bigger picture, let’s look around Africa and see what the structural
trends are in terms of how some of these concessions come together. Table
B is probably an unfair exhibit because it was put together
before India was selected for Tanzania among other things. However,
there is a recurring theme. In most of the concessions in Africa,
Spoornet or Spoornet through shareholding is participating in most of
these deals. When I referred earlier to not wanting to compete with the
government of South Africa or the government of India, this is one of
the reasons why you’ll find RDC on the Nacala Corridor, but not
bidding for some of these other projects.
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At a structural level I think there has been a shift in Africa.
Historically, financing came from the donors. The donors would hand out
free locomotives or track rehabilitation programs or other things. Now
that has shifted. Now there is an emerging cadre of private sector
operators like Eitan Dvir and Eric Pfeifer. A number of private
companies have emerged in various structures to compete for these
options, and yet, we also have the emergence of Indian Railways as a
competitor, etc. etc.
And there are still aid programs out there. So it is a very murky
environment in terms of trying to decide who the competition is going to
be.
But
let me give you a stark example of why aid programs don’t work. Below
are photos of donor locomotives taken “before” and “after”. Photo
2 is a sample of the locomotive fleet when they were first
donated, and Photo
3 and Photo
4
are what they looked like a couple of years ago–every picture tells a
story. It is not hard to see the result of what happens when you give
someone something; if they don’t pay for it, they don’t respect it.
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Africa
is not the only place in the world where it is difficult to invest in
and operate railways. A more difficult example, even by African
standards, I believe is Ferrovias Guatemala. The national railway system
was closed by the government in 1996 and then they went looking for the
private sector to wave the magic wand and pay the premium for the
privilege of putting this national railway back into operation. Well,
they only got one bid and that was from RDC.
We were only willing to commit putting the northern part of the railway
back into operation because the southern part was too far gone and we
didn’t want to take the risk of doing the whole thing.
We made the commitment; got the concession for 50 years from the
government; and began the rehabilitation work. Then in 1998 Hurricane
Mitch struck. Recall that Cyclone Delphina happened to us in Africa;
Hurricane Mitch happened to us in Guatemala. One of our friends said
that disaster follows us “like tornadoes to a trailer park;” we seem
to have the knack for getting into these projects just before natural
disasters occur.
But in 1999 we actually got the railway running from Guatemala City to
the Atlantic. However, it is also a fact that in 2005 we still have not
been able to finance reopening the rest of the system. So if you think
Africa is difficult, this is not the only difficult environment.
In the case of Ferrovias Guatemala there was no debt because the project
was so risky and the assets were owned by the State. It wasn’t really
possible to raise debt, so it was 100% private equity and basically
quasi-equity like commercial paper, etc. Additionally, in Central
America there are no Donors.
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Photo
5 |
To
make matters worse, after getting involved with the project, we were
declared by the various financial institutions that fund infrastructure
projects around the world to be an environmental problem. The reason
that putting a railroad back into operation is considered an
environmental problem is because while the railway was abandoned, people
built houses, shops, etc. on the track (Photo
5). When we started running trains again, they had to move. So
we were displacing an indigenous life form, which meant we were declared
a “Category A Environmental Problem”. This means that the only way
to get financing is to pay a consultant $100,000 to go out and interview
these people and ask for their permission to finance the project. Talk
about walking around with a gun pointed at your own head! This is why we
had to do this on our own.
But the most important point is that we made a commitment and it turned
out to be approximately ten times what we thought it was going to cost.
It is extremely expensive, but we honored the commitment.
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