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What I
would like to talk about today is our view of the British Railway
Privatization. First I will compare the UK privatization on a
structural basis with the rest of the world as we see it; second,
I will compare the fundamentals of the UK privatization with the
rest of the world; third, talk about how to value railway freight
franchises; fourth, how to structure for competitive advantage,
not only in making successful bids but also in making sustainable
bids; fifth talk about possible roles for US investors in the UK;
and then close with some conclusions.
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Global
Perspective on UK Privatization - Structure
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Taking the major types of privatization and the major countries where
it's evolved, please focus your attention on the franchise type and note that
in the USA, Argentina and New Zealand the franchises are all exclusive
and these have all been considered successful. In Chile, they have
a kind of open access and there was only one bidder. In the UK, a
grand experiment is about to begin and it will be very interesting to
see how many bidders come forth, but I think more importantly how
successful these privatizations will be. I'm confident there will be
numerous bidders but the question is, "Are these sustainable bids
or not?" I think a lot of that is driven by the type of franchise,
which I will clarify later on.
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Rail Privatization Models (freight only)
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USA |
Argentina |
Sweden |
New
Zealand |
UK |
Chile |
| Franchise
Scope |
Region |
Region |
Branches |
Country |
Country |
Region |
| Number
of Franchises |
1 |
6 |
Unlimited |
1 |
6
Initially |
1
Initially |
| Franchise
Type |
Exclusive |
Exclusive |
Open
Access |
Exclusive |
Open
Access |
Open
Access |
| Transaction
Year |
1987 |
1991-
Present |
1988-
Present |
1993 |
1996?
and
beyond |
1995 |
| Infrastructure
Transaction |
Purchase |
Lease |
Utilization
Fee |
Purchase |
Utilization
Fee |
Utilization
Fee-Core Lines;
Lease-Branch Lines |
| Initial
Rolling Stock Transaction |
Purchase |
Lease |
Purchase |
Purchase |
Lease |
Purchase |
| Ongoing
Subsidy |
None |
None |
As
needed |
None |
As
needed |
None |
| Example |
Conrail |
BAP |
Osterlentag |
NZRL |
Load
Haul |
FEPASA |
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Primary
Government Objectives
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USA |
Argentina |
Sweden |
New
Zealand |
UK |
Chile |
| Reduce
/ Eliminate Losses |
X |
X |
X |
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X |
X |
Improve
Service/
Lower Transp. Costs |
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X |
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X |
X |
| Raise
Cash |
X |
X |
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X |
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X |
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